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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

FC Volendam host Fortuna Sittard at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:30 UTC.

Form Guide

FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (FC Volendam) versus 1.40 (Fortuna Sittard). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

Fortuna Sittard have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against FC Volendam's 1 victories.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Sittard winning.

It is worth noting that Fortuna Sittard have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 63% and Fortuna Sittard 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 72% | Fortuna Sittard 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.98 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.026 / defence 1.026 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.055 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.382. Data: 26 FC Volendam games / 60 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Volendam 48% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Fortuna Sittard 3.57. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Fortuna Sittard 80% BTTS from recent games.

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