🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

PEC Zwolle host Groningen at IJsseldelta Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at IJsseldelta Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at IJsseldelta Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Groningen — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Groningen's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PEC Zwolle 1.00 PPG, Groningen 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Groningen and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Groningen in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 62% versus Groningen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 52% | Groningen 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.56 xG and Groningen 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.923 / defence 0.872 | Groningen attack 0.927 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.383. Data: 60 PEC Zwolle games / 60 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 47% | Draw 27% | Groningen 26%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 3.85. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 50% | Groningen 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights