🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

NEC Nijmegen host FC Volendam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eredivisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.60 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

NEC Nijmegen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Volendam, with 1 draws in between.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with NEC Nijmegen winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NEC Nijmegen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 5.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

NEC Nijmegen trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

FC Volendam trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 63% and FC Volendam 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 68% | FC Volendam 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.18 xG and FC Volendam 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.208 / defence 1.224 | FC Volendam attack 0.571 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.391. Data: 59 NEC Nijmegen games / 25 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 64% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 15%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 90% | FC Volendam 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights