FC Volendam 1-0 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 8 as FC Volendam welcome Utrecht to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Utrecht have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Volendam 0.70 PPG, Utrecht 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Volendam, 1 for Utrecht and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Utrecht trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 65% versus Utrecht 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 70% | Utrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.61 xG and Utrecht 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.954 / defence 1.142 | Utrecht attack 0.847 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.448. Data: 40 FC Volendam games / 41 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Utrecht 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 1.61 / Utrecht 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.954 / def 1.142 | Utrecht attack 0.847 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Utrecht xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Utrecht kick off?
FC Volendam vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
FC Volendam 1 - 0 Utrecht.
Where is FC Volendam vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Utrecht part of?
FC Volendam vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 41% chance of winning, Utrecht a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Utrecht in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.95) and Utrecht's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.76
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.01
1.40
Utrecht xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.40 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 7D 23L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (17W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 9W 2D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.42 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Utrecht in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 10W 7D 23L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.45 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Utrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Utrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Utrecht have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 70%, Utrecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 70% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 50% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 70% of Utrecht's.
Do FC Volendam and Utrecht tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Utrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Utrecht 1-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.61 xG and Utrecht 1.40 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 41% | Draw 27% | Utrecht 32%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 70%, Utrecht 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with FC Volendam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.