AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to AFAS Stadion to face AZ Alkmaar in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's home record at AFAS Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.20 for PEC Zwolle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AZ Alkmaar lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 59% versus PEC Zwolle 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 63% | PEC Zwolle 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.26 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.238 / defence 0.902 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.159 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.500. Data: 51 AZ Alkmaar games / 17 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 25%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | PEC Zwolle 4.00. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 50% | PEC Zwolle 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.26 / PEC Zwolle 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.238 / def 0.902 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.159 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.500 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.57
PEC Zwolle xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 52% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 2W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.24x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.16x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.47
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.82
1.57
PEC Zwolle xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.57
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
3%
37.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.57 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 51 games, going 30W 10D 11L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.80 PPG from 51 outings (28W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.80 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 14W 6D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.72 points per game from 25 outings (13W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.14 scored and 1.37 conceded. PEC Zwolle's attacking output running into AZ Alkmaar's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 10D 11L in their last 51 games (1.96 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 28W 8D 15L in their last 51 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or PEC Zwolle away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.92 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.72 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 64%, PEC Zwolle 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for AZ Alkmaar and 76% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 64% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 76% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.26 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.57 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.24 / defence 0.90 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.16 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 25%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 63%, PEC Zwolle 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.96 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.