PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host Groningen at IJsseldelta Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Groningen — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PEC Zwolle 1.00 PPG, Groningen 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Groningen and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended PEC Zwolle 2–2 Groningen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Groningen in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 62% versus Groningen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 52% | Groningen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.56 xG and Groningen 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.923 / defence 0.872 | Groningen attack 0.927 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.383. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 60 games and Groningen's last 60.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 47% | Draw 27% | Groningen 26%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.15 | Draw 3.69 | Groningen 3.81. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: IJsseldelta Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 47% | Draw 27% | Groningen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.56 / Groningen 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.923 / def 0.872 | Groningen attack 0.927 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Groningen xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Groningen FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Groningen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at IJsseldelta Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at IJsseldelta Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Groningen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 47% chance of winning, Groningen a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.92x the league average against Groningen's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 60 games and Groningen's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.69
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.68
1.12
Groningen xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.12 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 17W 19D 24L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 20W 13D 27L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.17 PPG, Groningen on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 6D 10L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 6W 4D 19L from their last 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Groningen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.27 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Groningen
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Groningen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 19D 24L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Groningen have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Groningen away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.55 PPG; Groningen away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Sep 2026, when Groningen won Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
5
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Groningen?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Groningen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 48%, Groningen 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (PEC Zwolle) and 52% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Groningen in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Groningen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 55% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PEC Zwolle and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 52% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 72% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IJsseldelta Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as PEC Zwolle and Groningen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.56 xG and Groningen 1.12 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Groningen attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 47% | Draw 27% | Groningen 26%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 52%, Groningen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.17 PPG, Groningen 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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