🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PSV Eindhoven face NEC Nijmegen.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

PSV Eindhoven and NEC Nijmegen meet at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:45 UTC.

Current Form

PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PSV Eindhoven's home record at Philips Stadion: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

NEC Nijmegen (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. PSV Eindhoven's 2.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of NEC Nijmegen's 1.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — PSV Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, NEC Nijmegen in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Historically, PSV Eindhoven have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins from 9 meetings, with NEC Nijmegen managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 5–3 with PSV Eindhoven winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 97% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.

NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 70% and NEC Nijmegen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 85% | NEC Nijmegen 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.44 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.478 / defence 0.972 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.310 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.386. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.478 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 PSV Eindhoven games / 60 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 52% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 27%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | NEC Nijmegen 3.70. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.20 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 80% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights