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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEC Nijmegen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht beat NEC Nijmegen 1-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.27 xG and Utrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Utrecht outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.34 / defence 0.96 against Utrecht attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 19%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 69%, Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Utrecht's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.53 PPG, Utrecht 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights