NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, NEC Nijmegen have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Utrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in NEC Nijmegen's favour (2.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Utrecht's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 80% of Utrecht's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 4 for Utrecht and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended NEC Nijmegen 0–1 Utrecht — a Utrecht win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 60% and Utrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 69% | Utrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.27 xG and Utrecht 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.341 / defence 0.958 | Utrecht attack 0.861 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.435. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.341 — their 2.27 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 55 games and Utrecht's last 55.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 19%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.62 | Draw 5.14 | Utrecht 5.34. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.27 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 70% (last 10 home games) | Utrecht 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 18 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.27 / Utrecht 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.341 / def 0.958 | Utrecht attack 0.861 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Utrecht xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht FAQs
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 3 Utrecht.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 18) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 62% chance of winning, Utrecht a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.34x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.86x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from NEC Nijmegen's last 55 games and Utrecht's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.14
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.46
1.18
Utrecht xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
10%
9.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
2%
51.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.18 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 24W 12D 19L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Utrecht's form line: 24W 16D 15L from 55 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.60 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 26 home games (13W 8D 5L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 10W 10D 6L from their last 26 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Utrecht in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
NEC Nijmegen (Home) vs Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 24W 12D 19L in their last 55 games (1.53 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 24W 16D 15L in their last 55 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Utrecht away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.81 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Utrecht on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
NEC Nijmegen
2
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, Utrecht have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Utrecht 2-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for NEC Nijmegen, 77% for Utrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for NEC Nijmegen and 65% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 77% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 65% of Utrecht's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 85% of Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat NEC Nijmegen 1-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.27 xG and Utrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Utrecht outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.34 / defence 0.96 against Utrecht attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 19%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 69%, Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.53 PPG, Utrecht 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 18
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →