NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NEC Nijmegen face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Heerenveen at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Guide
NEC Nijmegen — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Heerenveen have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NEC Nijmegen 2.00 PPG, Heerenveen 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 60% of Heerenveen's (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 3 for Heerenveen and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Heerenveen — a Heerenveen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 63% and Heerenveen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 69% | Heerenveen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.23 xG and Heerenveen 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.231 / defence 1.159 | Heerenveen attack 1.102 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.354. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 61 games and Heerenveen's last 61.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 22% | Heerenveen 29%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.05 | Draw 4.58 | Heerenveen 3.40. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.73) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.96 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 80% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 28 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 22% | Heerenveen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.23 / Heerenveen 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.231 / def 1.159 | Heerenveen attack 1.102 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Heerenveen xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 49% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NEC Nijmegen's last 61 games and Heerenveen's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.58
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.96
1.73
Heerenveen xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
11%
9.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
3%
31.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.73 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 26W 14D 22L from 62 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 25L across 62 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.48 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 14W 8D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 7W 3D 20L across their last 30 away games, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.45 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Heerenveen in 61%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
NEC Nijmegen (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 26W 14D 22L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 23W 14D 25L in their last 62 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Heerenveen away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.67 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won NEC Nijmegen 3-0 Heerenveen.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
NEC Nijmegen
3
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, Heerenveen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Heerenveen 1-0 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEC Nijmegen at 73%, Heerenveen at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for NEC Nijmegen and 73% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 57% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 73% of Heerenveen's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 77% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 28, as NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.23 xG and Heerenveen 1.73 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against Heerenveen attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 22% | Heerenveen 29%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 69%, Heerenveen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG, Heerenveen 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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