NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, NEC Nijmegen have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward NEC Nijmegen. A 0.80 PPG lead over Fortuna Sittard (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Fortuna Sittard's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 70% of Fortuna Sittard's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen edge it 3 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Fortuna Sittard — a Fortuna Sittard win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 62% versus Fortuna Sittard 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 67% | Fortuna Sittard 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.42 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.221 / defence 1.105 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.940 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.368. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 58 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 58.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Draw 19% | Fortuna Sittard 21%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.68 | Draw 5.24 | Fortuna Sittard 4.68. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.42 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Fortuna Sittard's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 80% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 25 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Draw 19% | Fortuna Sittard 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.42 / Fortuna Sittard 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.221 / def 1.105 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.940 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Fortuna Sittard xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard FAQs
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 3 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 60% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.22) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.94x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from NEC Nijmegen's last 58 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
60%
1.68
19%
5.24
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.84
1.42
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.68
60%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
9%
11.29
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
2%
52.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.42 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 24W 14D 20L from 58 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 26L across 58 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.21 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 13W 8D 6L from their last 27 home games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 4W 9D 14L across their last 27 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.26 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
NEC Nijmegen (Home) vs Fortuna Sittard (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Form FAQs
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 13D 26L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.74 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Fortuna Sittard on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
NEC Nijmegen
4
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for NEC Nijmegen, 74% for Fortuna Sittard — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for NEC Nijmegen and 59% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 74% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 59% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 89% of Fortuna Sittard's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.42 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.42 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.22 / defence 1.10 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 60% | Draw 19% | Fortuna Sittard 21%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, Fortuna Sittard 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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