NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 64% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs FC Volendam encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

NEC Nijmegen host FC Volendam at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

NEC Nijmegen's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Volendam — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.

When travelling, FC Volendam have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.60 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

NEC Nijmegen hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for FC Volendam and 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended NEC Nijmegen 3–2 FC Volendam — a NEC Nijmegen win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both NEC Nijmegen and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 5.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

NEC Nijmegen trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

FC Volendam trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 63% and FC Volendam 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 68% | FC Volendam 72%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.18 xG and FC Volendam 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.208 / defence 1.224 | FC Volendam attack 0.571 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.391. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.571 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. NEC Nijmegen's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Volendam's projected output up. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 59 games and FC Volendam's last 25.

Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 64% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 15%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.56 | Draw 4.80 | FC Volendam 6.65. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (NEC Nijmegen 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 90% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights