Fortuna Sittard 3-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as Fortuna Sittard welcome Vitesse to Fortuna Sittard Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's home record at Fortuna Sittard Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Fortuna Sittard) versus 0.50 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 1 for Vitesse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vitesse trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 51% versus Vitesse 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 64% | Vitesse 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and Vitesse 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.911 / defence 0.887 | Vitesse attack 0.747 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.482. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Fortuna Sittard games / 47 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 60% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 16%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Vitesse 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Sittard (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Vitesse 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 60% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Fortuna Sittard 2.02 / Vitesse 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.911 / def 0.887 | Vitesse attack 0.747 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Vitesse xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 60% chance of winning, Vitesse a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse?
Record (4 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 2W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.04
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.00
0.98
Vitesse xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
48.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.98 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 13W 10D 24L from 47 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 23L across 47 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.04 PPG, Vitesse on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 4D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 13W 10D 24L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Vitesse away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.30 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Vitesse 3-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 44%, Vitesse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fortuna Sittard) and 56% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 39% of games; Vitesse in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 44% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 56% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Vitesse 3-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and Vitesse 0.98 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Vitesse attack 0.75 / defence 1.30, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 60% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 16%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 64%, Vitesse 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.04 PPG, Vitesse 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.