Fortuna Sittard 3-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Sittard face Vitesse.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fortuna Sittard welcome Vitesse to Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fortuna Sittard's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Vitesse's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Fortuna Sittard) versus 0.50 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Vitesse 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Fortuna Sittard 2–0 Vitesse — a Fortuna Sittard win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vitesse trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 51% versus Vitesse 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 64% | Vitesse 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fortuna Sittard surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Vitesse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and Vitesse 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.911 / defence 0.887 | Vitesse attack 0.747 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.482. Vitesse's defence rating of 1.299 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Sittard's projected output up. Vitesse's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Fortuna Sittard's last 47 games and Vitesse's last 47.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 60% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 16%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.68 | Draw 4.04 | Vitesse 6.36. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Sittard (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Sittard's last 10 home games and Vitesse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fortuna Sittard 50% (last 10 home games) | Vitesse 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 14 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 60% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Fortuna Sittard 2.02 / Vitesse 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.911 / def 0.887 | Vitesse attack 0.747 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Vitesse xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse FAQs
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 14) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 60% chance of winning, Vitesse a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Vitesse's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Sittard's last 47 games and Vitesse's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.04
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.00
0.98
Vitesse xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
48.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.98 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 13W 10D 24L from 47 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 23L across 47 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 1.04 PPG, Vitesse on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 8W 6D 9L from their last 23 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 4D 12L across their last 23 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.15 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
Fortuna Sittard (Home) vs Vitesse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 13W 10D 24L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Vitesse away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.30 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2024: Vitesse 3-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 44%, Vitesse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fortuna Sittard) and 56% (Vitesse).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 39% of games; Vitesse in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Vitesse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 44% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 56% of Vitesse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Vitesse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 78% of Vitesse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Vitesse 3-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and Vitesse 0.98 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against Vitesse attack 0.75 / defence 1.30, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 60% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 16%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 64%, Vitesse 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.04 PPG, Vitesse 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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