AZ Alkmaar 1-2 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AZ Alkmaar at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
NEC Nijmegen's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
NEC Nijmegen away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended AZ Alkmaar 3–0 NEC Nijmegen — a AZ Alkmaar win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 57% versus NEC Nijmegen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 60% | NEC Nijmegen 49%). Note also that NEC Nijmegen surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while AZ Alkmaar recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.37 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.300 / defence 0.634 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.984 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.489. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AZ Alkmaar have a tight defence (rating 0.634), which is pulling NEC Nijmegen's projected output down. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 47 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 47.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 12%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.47 | Draw 4.87 | NEC Nijmegen 8.60. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (68%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 40% (last 10 home games) | NEC Nijmegen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 10 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.37 / NEC Nijmegen 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.300 / def 0.634 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.984 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.489 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.93
NEC Nijmegen xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 2 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 10) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 68% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.98x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 47 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.87
12%
8.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.30
0.93
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
8.60
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
9%
10.65
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
1%
91.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.93 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 47 games, going 29W 10D 8L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.09 PPG from 47 outings (10W 21D 16L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 13W 6D 3L across their last 22 home games, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 22 away games (5W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.36 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs NEC Nijmegen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 29W 10D 8L in their last 47 games (2.06 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 10W 21D 16L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.05 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.09 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
NEC Nijmegen have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
3
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 64%, NEC Nijmegen 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (AZ Alkmaar) and 36% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 32%; NEC Nijmegen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 36% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of AZ Alkmaar's recent games and 36% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 59% of NEC Nijmegen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.37 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.93 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.4 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.30 / defence 0.63 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 12%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a NEC Nijmegen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 60%, NEC Nijmegen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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