NAC Breda 3-1 Roda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates NAC Breda at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Roda encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

NAC Breda welcome Roda to Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Monday 13 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, NAC Breda stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Roda have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Roda's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

NAC Breda are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of NAC Breda's games and 60% of Roda's (from NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, NAC Breda have won 2, Roda 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Mar 2024, ended NAC Breda 1–3 Roda — a Roda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

NAC Breda trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Roda trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 71% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 68% | Roda 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.69 xG and Roda 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Roda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.473. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 0 games and Roda's last 0.

Result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 26% | Roda 32%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.37 | Draw 3.80 | Roda 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 60% (last 10 home games) | Roda 60% (last 10 away games).

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