Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Relegation Round as Emmen welcome NAC Breda to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
NAC Breda — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. NAC Breda's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Emmen's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while NAC Breda have managed just 1 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Emmen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
NAC Breda trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 56% and NAC Breda 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 54% | NAC Breda 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.97 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.993 / defence 1.000 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.485. Data: 34 Emmen games / 0 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 52% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 23%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | NAC Breda 4.35. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Emmen dominate the H2H record, yet NAC Breda are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 40% | NAC Breda 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 52% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Emmen 1.97 / NAC Breda 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.993 / def 1.000 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Emmen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
NAC Breda xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Emmen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Emmen 0 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is Emmen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs NAC Breda part of?
Emmen vs NAC Breda is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 52% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Emmen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Record (7 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Emmen's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.01
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.23
1.26
NAC Breda xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
3%
31.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Emmen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Emmen and 1.26 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Emmen have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 9W 12D 20L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda's form line: 19W 6D 16L from 41 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Emmen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (4W 10D 6L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 9W 2D 9L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.78 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 71%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 9W 12D 20L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 19W 6D 16L in their last 41 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or NAC Breda away?
NAC Breda's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.10 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and NAC Breda?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and NAC Breda?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 45%, NAC Breda 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 45% for Emmen and 80% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Emmen's games and 70% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Emmen's matches and 80% of NAC Breda's.
Do Emmen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Emmen 0-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.97 xG and NAC Breda 1.26 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Emmen fell 2.0 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 52% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 23%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 54%, NAC Breda 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NAC Breda's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.