De Graafschap 2-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host ADO Den Haag at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. De Graafschap haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. ADO Den Haag haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.30 PPG versus ADO Den Haag's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 2 for ADO Den Haag and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 3–5 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus ADO Den Haag 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | ADO Den Haag 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.69 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.474. Data: 0 De Graafschap games / 0 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | ADO Den Haag 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 20% | ADO Den Haag 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG De Graafschap 1.69 / ADO Den Haag 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.44
ADO Den Haag xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
De Graafschap 2 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag part of?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 42% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 2 | ADO Den Haag 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.85) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.80
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.12
1.44
ADO Den Haag xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.44 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 7D 16L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. De Graafschap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (13W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. ADO Den Haag haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.37 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 10W 2D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.34 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
ADO Den Haag
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 15W 7D 16L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 13W 12D 13L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or ADO Den Haag away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.68 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.42 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
De Graafschap's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
3
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 42%, ADO Den Haag 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (De Graafschap) and 47% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; ADO Den Haag in 32%; ADO Den Haag in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of De Graafschap's recent games and 47% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat De Graafschap 2-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.69 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.44 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 42% | Draw 26% | ADO Den Haag 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual ADO Den Haag win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, ADO Den Haag 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.37 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.