Groningen 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and Roda meet at Euroborg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg.
Roda (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Roda away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.40 for Groningen, 2.20 for Roda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Groningen, 0 for Roda and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 49% versus Roda 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | Roda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.45 xG and Roda 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.131 / defence 0.786 | Roda attack 1.205 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.364. Roda's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Roda have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Groningen's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Groningen games / 75 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Roda 32%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Roda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 50% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Roda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Groningen 1.45 / Roda 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.131 / def 0.786 | Roda attack 1.205 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Groningen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Roda xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Roda kick off?
Groningen vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Roda?
Groningen 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is Groningen vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Roda part of?
Groningen vs Roda is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Groningen and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Roda 0W.
What form are Groningen and Roda in?
Groningen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Roda (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Groningen's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.21x) against Groningen's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.45
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.75
1.29
Roda xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Groningen and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Groningen and 1.29 for Roda, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen come into this having played 71 games, going 25W 15D 31L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.54 PPG from 71 outings (30W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Groningen against 1.54 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Groningen's home form reads 14W 8D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.17 points per game from 35 outings (10W 11D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.56 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Roda in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 25W 15D 31L in their last 71 games (1.27 PPG), while Roda have gone 30W 19D 22L in their last 71 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Roda away?
Groningen's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.43 PPG; Roda away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
0
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Roda?
From 2 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Roda have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Groningen 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Roda?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 49%, Roda 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Groningen) and 46% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 31% of games; Roda in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Groningen's recent matches and 57% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Groningen's recent games and 46% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Roda tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Roda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Roda 2-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.45 xG and Roda 1.29 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.13 / defence 0.79 against Roda attack 1.21 / defence 0.78, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 39% | Draw 29% | Roda 32%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, Roda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.27 PPG, Roda 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.