PEC Zwolle 0-3 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAC³PARK Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AZ Alkmaar are 0.80 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.50 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 58% versus AZ Alkmaar 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 63% | AZ Alkmaar 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.89 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.716 / defence 0.979 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.166 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.459. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 PEC Zwolle games / 38 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 17% | Draw 30% | AZ Alkmaar 53%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | AZ Alkmaar 1.89. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 40% | AZ Alkmaar 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 17% | Draw 30% | AZ Alkmaar 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.89 / AZ Alkmaar 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.716 / def 0.979 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.166 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.67
AZ Alkmaar xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 3 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 17% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 53% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.72x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.17x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 5/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
17%
5.83
30%
3.34
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.55
1.67
AZ Alkmaar xG
5.83
17%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
3%
30.84
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.0 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 24W 5D 9L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 24W 7D 7L from 38 games, 2.08 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.03 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 2.08 for AZ Alkmaar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 2.32 PPG from 19 outings (14W 2D 3L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 13W 2D 4L from 19 away games — 2.16 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.11 scored and 0.97 conceded. PEC Zwolle's scoring rate against AZ Alkmaar's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 61%.
Defensively: PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; AZ Alkmaar in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 24W 5D 9L in their last 38 games (2.03 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 24W 7D 7L in their last 38 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 2.32 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 2.16 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 53%, AZ Alkmaar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (PEC Zwolle) and 63% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 53% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 63% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat PEC Zwolle 0-3 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.89 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.67 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.17 / defence 0.70, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 17% | Draw 30% | AZ Alkmaar 53%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 63%, AZ Alkmaar 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 2.03 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.