Feyenoord 2-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Telstar make the trip to De Kuip to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Feyenoord have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Telstar's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Telstar have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 0.90 PPG lead over Telstar (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Feyenoord, 0 for Telstar and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Feyenoord 2–1 Telstar — a Feyenoord win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 60% versus Telstar 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 61% | Telstar 60%). Note also that Telstar surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.23 xG and Telstar 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.284 / defence 1.127 | Telstar attack 0.755 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.382. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 2.23 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Telstar's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 57 games and Telstar's last 23.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 61% | Draw 20% | Telstar 19%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.64 | Draw 4.99 | Telstar 5.27. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Telstar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 80% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Telstar | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 24 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 61% | Draw 20% | Telstar 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Feyenoord 2.23 / Telstar 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.284 / def 1.127 | Telstar attack 0.755 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Telstar xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Telstar FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Telstar kick off?
Feyenoord vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at De Kuip.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Telstar?
Feyenoord 2 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Feyenoord vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Telstar part of?
Feyenoord vs Telstar is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 61% chance of winning, Telstar a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Feyenoord and Telstar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.28) and Telstar's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.76x) against Feyenoord's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 57 games and Telstar's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.99
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.40
1.18
Telstar xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
11%
9.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
2%
48.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.18 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 34W 11D 12L from 57 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 20L across 57 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Telstar heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 19W 3D 6L from their last 28 home games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 8W 7D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feyenoord are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.60 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Telstar
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Telstar in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 34W 11D 12L in their last 57 games (1.98 PPG), while Telstar have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Telstar away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.14 PPG; Telstar away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Telstar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Feyenoord and Telstar, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Feyenoord have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Telstar?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 3, Telstar have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Telstar 3-4 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Telstar?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 61%, Telstar 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Feyenoord) and 46% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Telstar in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Telstar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 46% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feyenoord and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Feyenoord's matches and 46% of Telstar's.
Do Feyenoord and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 64% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Telstar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Telstar 2-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.23 xG and Telstar 1.18 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.28 / defence 1.13 against Telstar attack 0.76 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 61% | Draw 20% | Telstar 19%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 61%, Telstar 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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