Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Groningen travel to De Kuip to take on Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Feyenoord stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Feyenoord's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Groningen's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Feyenoord are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Feyenoord: 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Groningen, with 3 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Feyenoord 1–0 Groningen — a Feyenoord win.
The head-to-head data gives Feyenoord an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Groningen trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 61% versus Groningen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 59% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.69 xG and Groningen 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.134 / defence 1.062 | Groningen attack 1.001 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.279. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 64 games and Groningen's last 64.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 42% | Draw 30% | Groningen 28%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.37 | Draw 3.36 | Groningen 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 90% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 31 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 42% | Draw 30% | Groningen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Feyenoord 1.69 / Groningen 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.134 / def 1.062 | Groningen attack 1.001 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Groningen xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Groningen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Groningen kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at De Kuip.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Feyenoord 3 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Feyenoord vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Groningen part of?
Feyenoord vs Groningen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 42% chance of winning, Groningen a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Feyenoord and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.13) and Groningen's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 64 games and Groningen's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.36
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.05
1.36
Groningen xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
5%
19.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.36 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 36W 15D 13L from 64 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 27L across 64 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 21W 5D 6L from their last 32 home games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 8W 5D 19L across their last 32 away games, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
Feyenoord (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Feyenoord vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Groningen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 36W 15D 13L in their last 64 games (1.92 PPG), while Groningen have gone 22W 15D 27L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Groningen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.12 PPG; Groningen away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Jan 2023, when Feyenoord won Groningen 0-3 Feyenoord.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Feyenoord
3
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 5, Groningen have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Groningen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 66%, Groningen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Feyenoord) and 50% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Groningen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Groningen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Feyenoord's games and 56% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Feyenoord and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feyenoord's matches and 50% of Groningen's.
Do Feyenoord and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 72% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Groningen 3-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.69 xG and Groningen 1.36 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Groningen attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 42% | Draw 30% | Groningen 28%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 59%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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