FC Volendam 1-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 48%, yet the head-to-head data favours Fortuna Sittard — this FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host Fortuna Sittard at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
FC Volendam's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Sittard have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (FC Volendam) versus 1.40 (Fortuna Sittard). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Fortuna Sittard's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Fortuna Sittard have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for FC Volendam.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended FC Volendam 0–1 Fortuna Sittard — a Fortuna Sittard win.
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 63% and Fortuna Sittard 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 72% | Fortuna Sittard 58%). Note also that Fortuna Sittard surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while FC Volendam recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.98 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.026 / defence 1.026 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.055 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.382. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 26 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 60.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 48% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.08 | Draw 4.25 | Fortuna Sittard 3.53. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.98 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Fortuna Sittard's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 80% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 48% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG FC Volendam 1.98 / Fortuna Sittard 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.026 / def 1.026 | Fortuna Sittard attack 1.055 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Fortuna Sittard xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard FAQs
What time does FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
FC Volendam 1 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 48% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.03x the league average against Fortuna Sittard's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Volendam's last 26 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.25
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.48
1.50
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
4%
25.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.50 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 32W 10D 18L from 60 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 27L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 20W 4D 6L from their last 30 home games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 6W 9D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.28 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
FC Volendam (Home) vs Fortuna Sittard (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Volendam
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard Form FAQs
What form are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 32W 10D 18L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.13 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Volendam have won 1, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: FC Volendam 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 70%, Fortuna Sittard at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for FC Volendam and 57% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Volendam vs Fortuna Sittard Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 70% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of FC Volendam's matches and 57% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do FC Volendam and Fortuna Sittard matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 83% of Fortuna Sittard's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.98 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.50 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 48% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 28%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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