Utrecht 5-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Utrecht's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utrecht have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stadion Galgenwaard — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Utrecht. A 0.90 PPG lead over PEC Zwolle (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Utrecht have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utrecht lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Utrecht — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 52% versus PEC Zwolle 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 49% | PEC Zwolle 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.85 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.046 / defence 0.849 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.968 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.351. Data: 61 Utrecht games / 27 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 53% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 21%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 4.76. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 70% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 53% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Utrecht 1.85 / PEC Zwolle 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.046 / def 0.849 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.968 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.11
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht 5 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 53% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Utrecht and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in?
Utrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.05) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.97x) against Utrecht's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.96
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.96
1.11
PEC Zwolle xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
3%
29.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.11 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht come into this having played 63 games, going 25W 18D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.70 PPG from 63 outings (32W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Utrecht against 1.70 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Utrecht's home form reads 13W 10D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.65 points per game from 31 outings (15W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.02 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 25W 18D 20L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 32W 11D 20L in their last 63 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.58 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Utrecht or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Utrecht
3
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 55%, PEC Zwolle 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Utrecht) and 71% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Utrecht's games and 61% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Utrecht's matches and 71% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Utrecht and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 5-1 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat PEC Zwolle 5-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.85 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.11 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.05 / defence 0.85 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 53% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 21%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 49%, PEC Zwolle 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.48 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.