Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 41%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
AZ Alkmaar travel to Stadion Woudestein to take on Excelsior in Eredivisie (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Excelsior have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AZ Alkmaar stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AZ Alkmaar's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Excelsior carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Excelsior, 2 for AZ Alkmaar and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2026, ended Excelsior 1–1 AZ Alkmaar — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 55% versus AZ Alkmaar 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 57% | AZ Alkmaar 62%). Note also that AZ Alkmaar surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Excelsior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.33 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.804 / defence 1.080 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.943 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.439. Data: built from Excelsior's last 22 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 56.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.92 | Draw 3.96 | AZ Alkmaar 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Excelsior 50% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Excelsior 1.33 / AZ Alkmaar 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.804 / def 1.080 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.943 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.47
AZ Alkmaar xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Excelsior 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 34% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 22 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
34%
2.92
25%
3.96
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.79
1.47
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.64
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.47 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 28W 13D 17L record — D-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 27W 15D 16L from 58 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.67 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 5D 7L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 13W 6D 9L from their last 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.76 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 64%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Excelsior (Home) vs AZ Alkmaar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 28W 13D 17L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 27W 15D 16L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Excelsior's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.89 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Excelsior or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Feb 2023, when AZ Alkmaar won AZ Alkmaar 5-0 Excelsior.
Excelsior's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
3
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 1, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 43%, AZ Alkmaar 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Excelsior) and 61% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Excelsior's recent matches and 54% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Excelsior's recent games and 61% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Excelsior's recent matches and 68% of AZ Alkmaar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Excelsior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Excelsior 1-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.33 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.47 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 57%, AZ Alkmaar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.67 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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