PEC Zwolle 1-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as PEC Zwolle welcome Vitesse to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's home record at MAC³PARK Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
On current form, PEC Zwolle have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for PEC Zwolle, 2 for Vitesse and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 60% versus Vitesse 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 67% | Vitesse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.94 xG and Vitesse 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.779 / defence 1.249 | Vitesse attack 0.699 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.480. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.540 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 PEC Zwolle games / 52 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 51% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 23%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Vitesse 4.35. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Vitesse lead the H2H ledger, but PEC Zwolle carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 60% | Vitesse 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 51% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.94 / Vitesse 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.779 / def 1.249 | Vitesse attack 0.699 / def 1.540 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Vitesse xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 January 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 51% chance of winning, Vitesse a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Vitesse in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Vitesse (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.78) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.84
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.23
1.29
Vitesse xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
14%
6.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
3%
29.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.29 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 28W 9D 15L from 52 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 26L across 52 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PEC Zwolle by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 15W 4D 7L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 4D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.12 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Vitesse in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 28W 9D 15L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 13W 13D 26L in their last 52 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Vitesse away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.88 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.96 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vitesse in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 54%, Vitesse 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (PEC Zwolle) and 62% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Vitesse in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 46% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 62% of Vitesse's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Vitesse tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Vitesse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Vitesse 1-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.94 xG and Vitesse 1.29 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Vitesse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Vitesse attack 0.70 / defence 1.54, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 51% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 23%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 67%, Vitesse 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vitesse's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.