AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AZ Alkmaar welcome Heracles to AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AZ Alkmaar's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Heracles stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Heracles have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Heracles's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 3 for Heracles and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Heracles — a AZ Alkmaar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Heracles trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 67% and Heracles 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 65% | Heracles 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.51 xG and Heracles 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.030 / defence 1.085 | Heracles attack 0.785 / defence 1.479. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.384. Heracles's defence rating of 1.479 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AZ Alkmaar's projected output up. Heracles's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from AZ Alkmaar's last 60 games and Heracles's last 60.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 19% | Heracles 15%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.52 | Draw 5.31 | Heracles 6.49. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.51 / 1.18) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AZ Alkmaar's last 10 home games and Heracles's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AZ Alkmaar 90% (last 10 home games) | Heracles 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 19% | Heracles 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.51 / Heracles 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.030 / def 1.085 | Heracles attack 0.785 / def 1.479 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Heracles xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles FAQs
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
AZ Alkmaar 4 - 0 Heracles.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 66% chance of winning, Heracles a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Heracles will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.51. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AZ Alkmaar's last 60 games and Heracles's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.31
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.69
1.18
Heracles xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
8%
12.35
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
1%
80.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.18 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 15D 18L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.93 PPG from 60 outings (14W 14D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.23 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Heracles in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Heracles
Blended
AZ Alkmaar (Home) vs Heracles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles Form FAQs
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Heracles away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.70 PPG; Heracles away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: AZ Alkmaar have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2024, when Heracles won Heracles 5-0 AZ Alkmaar.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, Heracles have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Heracles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Heracles?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 77%, Heracles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AZ Alkmaar and 63% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AZ Alkmaar and Heracles matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 50% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AZ Alkmaar and Heracles matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 63% of Heracles's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Heracles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 83% of Heracles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Heracles 4-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.51 xG and Heracles 1.18 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Heracles attack 0.79 / defence 1.48, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 66% | Draw 19% | Heracles 15%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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