🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face Almere City FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

AZ Alkmaar and Almere City FC meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form

AZ Alkmaar (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AFAS Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Almere City FC's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward AZ Alkmaar. A 0.60 PPG lead over Almere City FC (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — AZ Alkmaar lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Almere City FC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 52% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 64% | Almere City FC 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.939 / defence 0.830 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. Data: 67 AZ Alkmaar games / 67 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 53% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 18%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Almere City FC 5.56. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 40% | Almere City FC 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights