NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and Willem II meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 2W 5D 3L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Willem II have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for NAC Breda against 0.10 for Willem II. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for NAC Breda, 1 for Willem II and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 65% and Willem II 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Willem II 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.32 xG and Willem II 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.725 / defence 1.134 | Willem II attack 0.630 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. NAC Breda's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 NAC Breda games / 33 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 44% | Draw 31% | Willem II 25%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Willem II 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: NAC Breda 80% | Willem II 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 44% | Draw 31% | Willem II 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG NAC Breda 1.32 / Willem II 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.725 / def 1.134 | Willem II attack 0.630 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Willem II xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Willem II kick off?
NAC Breda vs Willem II kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Willem II?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is NAC Breda vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Willem II part of?
NAC Breda vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 44% chance of winning, Willem II a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both NAC Breda and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 2 | Willem II 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Willem II in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.72) and Willem II's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.63x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.22
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.27
0.95
Willem II xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.95 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 25W 19D 27L from 71 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 25L across 71 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.46 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 15W 11D 9L from 35 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 12W 11D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.55 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Willem II in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 25W 19D 27L in their last 71 games (1.32 PPG), while Willem II have gone 29W 17D 25L in their last 71 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Willem II away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.60 PPG; Willem II away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
3
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Willem II?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 71%, Willem II 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (NAC Breda) and 29% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Willem II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of NAC Breda's games and 51% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of NAC Breda's recent games and 29% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Willem II tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Willem II in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 34, as NAC Breda and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.32 xG and Willem II 0.95 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.72 / defence 1.13 against Willem II attack 0.63 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 44% | Draw 31% | Willem II 25%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 56%, Willem II 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.32 PPG, Willem II 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.