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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

PEC Zwolle host Groningen at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Groningen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Groningen's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PEC Zwolle 1.30 PPG, Groningen 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for PEC Zwolle, 0 for Groningen and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Groningen in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 63% versus Groningen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 55% | Groningen 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.90 xG and Groningen 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.862 / defence 0.882 | Groningen attack 0.706 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 PEC Zwolle games / 33 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | Groningen 14%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Groningen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 50% | Groningen 60%.

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