🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Feyenoord (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heerenveen face Feyenoord.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 34 as Heerenveen welcome Feyenoord to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Heerenveen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Heerenveen's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Abe Lenstra Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Heerenveen are significantly better at Abe Lenstra Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Feyenoord's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Feyenoord's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Heerenveen's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heerenveen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Feyenoord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Heerenveen.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Feyenoord winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Heerenveen trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Feyenoord trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 55% versus Feyenoord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 63% | Feyenoord 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.33 xG and Feyenoord 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.079 / defence 0.920 | Feyenoord attack 1.442 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Heerenveen games / 67 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Heerenveen 28% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 46%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 2.17. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 70% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights