Ajax 4-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Ajax face Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajax host Fortuna Sittard at Johan Cruijff Arena in Eredivisie (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ajax — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Ajax have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortuna Sittard stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ajax are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Ajax hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 0 for Fortuna Sittard and 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Ajax 3–1 Fortuna Sittard — a Ajax win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Ajax and goals — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Ajax trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 57% versus Fortuna Sittard 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 57% | Fortuna Sittard 55%). Note also that Fortuna Sittard surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Ajax recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 1.76 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.012 / defence 0.825 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.915 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.444. Data: built from Ajax's last 56 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 56.
Result probabilities: Ajax 53% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 23%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.88 | Draw 4.26 | Fortuna Sittard 4.27. Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ajax's last 10 home games and Fortuna Sittard's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajax 50% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 53% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Ajax 1.76 / Fortuna Sittard 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.012 / def 0.825 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.915 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Ajax (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fortuna Sittard xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard FAQs
What time does Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Ajax 4 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 53% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ajax and Fortuna Sittard will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ajax's attack at 1.01x the league average against Fortuna Sittard's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajax's last 56 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.26
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Ajax xG
Total xG
2.85
1.09
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
4%
24.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ajax and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Ajax and 1.09 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajax's recent record stands at 34W 15D 7L from 56 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 25L across 56 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajax by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajax have managed 20W 5D 3L from their last 28 home games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 5W 9D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajax are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.25 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Ajax (Home) vs Fortuna Sittard (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajax
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard Form FAQs
What form are Ajax and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 34W 15D 7L in their last 56 games (2.09 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Ajax's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.32 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Ajax or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ajax have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Dec 2021, when Ajax won Ajax 5-0 Fortuna Sittard.
Ajax's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Ajax
2
Draws
0
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Fortuna Sittard?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajax have won 8, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Fortuna Sittard 1-5 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Fortuna Sittard?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 46%, Fortuna Sittard 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ajax) and 54% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajax vs Fortuna Sittard Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajax and Fortuna Sittard matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Ajax's games and 68% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ajax and Fortuna Sittard matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Ajax's recent games and 54% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajax and Fortuna Sittard matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Ajax's recent matches and 82% of Fortuna Sittard's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Fortuna Sittard 4-1 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 1.76 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.09 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ajax beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.01 / defence 0.82 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 53% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Sittard 23%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 57%, Fortuna Sittard 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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