Willem II 3-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Willem II at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Jong AZ encounter.

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Match Analysis

Willem II host Jong AZ at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 37). Kick-off is Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Willem II stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Willem II have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Jong AZ have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Jong AZ have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Willem II have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Willem II have won 3, Jong AZ 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2025, ended Willem II 0–4 Jong AZ — a Jong AZ win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).

Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 58% and Jong AZ 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 51% | Jong AZ 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.56 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.793 / defence 0.750 | Jong AZ attack 1.204 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.483. Willem II's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.56. Jong AZ's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Willem II's projected output up. Jong AZ have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 1.34. Willem II have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling Jong AZ's projected output down. Data: built from Willem II's last 36 games and Jong AZ's last 74.

Result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 33%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.35 | Draw 4.06 | Jong AZ 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 40% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 70% (last 10 away games).

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