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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

De Graafschap host Cambuur at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cambuur — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cambuur away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.80 PPG versus Cambuur's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cambuur in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Cambuur have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against De Graafschap's 1 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Cambuur winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cambuur have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

Cambuur in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 66% versus Cambuur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 64% | Cambuur 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.90 xG and Cambuur 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.251 / defence 0.989 | Cambuur attack 1.105 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.483. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 74 De Graafschap games / 74 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 22% | Cambuur 33%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Cambuur 3.03. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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