Willem II 2-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Willem II at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Willem II and Dordrecht meet at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Koning Willem II Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 64% versus Dordrecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 64% | Dordrecht 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.21 xG and Dordrecht 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.150 / defence 0.911 | Dordrecht attack 0.941 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.248. Data: 39 Willem II games / 39 Dordrecht games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Willem II 63% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 17%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Dordrecht 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 63% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Willem II 2.21 / Dordrecht 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.150 / def 0.911 | Dordrecht attack 0.941 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Willem II (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dordrecht xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Dordrecht kick off?
Willem II vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Willem II 2 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Willem II vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Dordrecht part of?
Willem II vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 63% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Willem II and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Willem II and Dordrecht in?
Willem II (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.15) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.94x) against Willem II's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.13
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.28
1.07
Dordrecht xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
2%
53.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Willem II and 1.07 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 19W 12D 8L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht's form line: 9W 9D 21L from 39 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (13W 2D 4L).
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 3W 4D 12L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.10 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 19W 12D 8L in their last 39 games (1.77 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Dordrecht away?
Willem II's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.16 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Willem II or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Willem II have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
2
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Dordrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, Dordrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Dordrecht 1-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Dordrecht?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 58%, Dordrecht 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Willem II and 58% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Willem II's games and 63% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Willem II's matches and 58% of Dordrecht's.
Do Willem II and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Dordrecht 2-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.21 xG and Dordrecht 1.07 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.15 / defence 0.91 against Dordrecht attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 63% | Draw 20% | Dordrecht 17%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 64%, Dordrecht 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dordrecht's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.