Jong Utrecht 1-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Stadion Galgenwaard to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 21 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Galgenwaard this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Groningen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Groningen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 0.40 for Groningen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 43% versus Groningen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 40% | Groningen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.72 xG and Groningen 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.872 / defence 0.955 | Groningen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.283. Data: 39 Jong Utrecht games / 1 Groningen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 53% | Draw 24% | Groningen 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Groningen 4.35. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 50% | Groningen 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 21 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 53% | Draw 24% | Groningen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.72 / Groningen 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.872 / def 0.955 | Groningen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Groningen xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Groningen kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 21 August 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Groningen part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 53% chance of winning, Groningen a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Groningen in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Groningen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.87) and Groningen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.85x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.20
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.76
1.04
Groningen xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
4%
24.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.04 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 7W 6D 22L from 35 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 24L across 35 games — 0.60 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 0.60 for Groningen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 1W 3D 13L across 17 trips, a 0.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.00 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Groningen in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 7W 6D 22L in their last 35 games (0.77 PPG), while Groningen have gone 5W 6D 24L in their last 35 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Groningen away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.12 PPG; Groningen away: 0.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Groningen?
From 2 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, Groningen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2023, when Groningen 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Groningen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 35%, Groningen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Jong Utrecht) and 59% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 47% of games; Groningen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 53% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 59% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out Groningen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Groningen 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.72 xG and Groningen 1.04 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Groningen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Groningen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 53% | Draw 24% | Groningen 23%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 40%, Groningen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.77 PPG, Groningen 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.