MVV 0-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to De Geusselt to face MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 2 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Eindhoven are 0.80 PPG clear of MVV in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — MVV register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Eindhoven in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — MVV lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 3–2 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 70% and FC Eindhoven 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 74% | FC Eindhoven 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 0.95 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.859 / defence 1.167 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.763 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.398. FC Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 MVV games / 45 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 28% | Draw 29% | FC Eindhoven 43%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | FC Eindhoven 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: MVV 70% | FC Eindhoven 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 28% | Draw 29% | FC Eindhoven 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG MVV 0.95 / FC Eindhoven 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.859 / def 1.167 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.763 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FC Eindhoven xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
MVV vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs FC Eindhoven?
MVV 0 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is MVV vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs FC Eindhoven part of?
MVV vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 28% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both MVV and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and FC Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): MVV 2W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are MVV and FC Eindhoven in?
MVV (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.86) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.76x) against MVV's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
28%
3.53
29%
3.48
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
MVV xG
Total xG
2.20
1.24
FC Eindhoven xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are MVV and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for MVV and 1.24 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV's recent record stands at 20W 6D 21L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 13L across 47 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for MVV against 1.53 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, MVV have managed 14W 3D 6L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 7W 8D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.43 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 20W 6D 21L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 19W 15D 13L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or FC Eindhoven away?
MVV's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.96 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 5-0 on 9 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
MVV
1
Draws
4
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when FC Eindhoven 5-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and FC Eindhoven?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for MVV, 56% for FC Eindhoven — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (MVV) and 44% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of MVV's games and 56% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of MVV's matches and 44% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do MVV and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out MVV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 0.95 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.24 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.76 / defence 0.70, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 28% | Draw 29% | FC Eindhoven 43%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 74%, FC Eindhoven 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.40 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.