FC Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 42%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Eindhoven vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Willem II at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:15 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC Eindhoven have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Willem II have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Willem II — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for FC Eindhoven, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Feb 2023, ended FC Eindhoven 0–3 Willem II — a Willem II win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Willem II in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 55% and Willem II 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 52% | Willem II 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG and Willem II 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.991 / defence 1.000 | Willem II attack 1.058 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.267. Data: built from FC Eindhoven's last 38 games and Willem II's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 42% | Draw 25% | Willem II 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.40 | Draw 4.03 | Willem II 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Eindhoven's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Eindhoven 40% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (FC Eindhoven 38 games, Willem II 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 1 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 42% | Draw 25% | Willem II 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG FC Eindhoven 1.52 / Willem II 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.991 / def 1.000 | Willem II attack 1.058 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Willem II xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Willem II FAQs
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Willem II kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Willem II kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Willem II part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 1) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 42% chance of winning, Willem II a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Eindhoven vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Eindhoven's last 38 games and Willem II's last 38, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.03
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.86
1.34
Willem II xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.34 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 17W 10D 13L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Willem II's form line: 19W 12D 9L from 40 games, 1.72 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.52 PPG, Willem II on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 20 home games (11W 4D 5L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 6W 9D 5L from their last 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.80 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 65%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Pre-Season
Willem II
Pre-Season
FC Eindhoven (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Eindhoven
Pre-Season
Willem II
Pre-Season
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are FC Eindhoven and Willem II in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 10D 13L in their last 40 games (1.52 PPG), while Willem II have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Willem II away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.85 PPG; Willem II away: 1.35 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Willem II in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Feb 2023, when Willem II won Willem II 3-0 FC Eindhoven.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Willem II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: FC Eindhoven 0-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 50%, Willem II 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for FC Eindhoven and 65% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Eindhoven vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Eindhoven and Willem II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Eindhoven's games and 70% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Eindhoven and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 65% of Willem II's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 80% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as FC Eindhoven and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG and Willem II 1.34 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Willem II attack 1.06 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 42% | Draw 25% | Willem II 33%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 52%, Willem II 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.52 PPG, Willem II 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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