🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Willem II cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Almere City FC 2-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Semi-finals, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.70 xG and Almere City FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.84 / defence 0.74 against Almere City FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 49% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 27%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Almere City FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Almere City FC's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.31 PPG, Almere City FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights