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Poisson model favours Willem II (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Almere City FC.

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Analysis

Almere City FC make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Willem II have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.

Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Almere City FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Willem II. A 0.90 PPG lead over Almere City FC (2.50 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Willem II, 2 for Almere City FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Willem II winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Willem II — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Almere City FC — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 57% versus Almere City FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Almere City FC 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.70 xG and Almere City FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.839 / defence 0.741 | Almere City FC attack 1.142 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Willem II's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Willem II games / 38 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Willem II 49% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Almere City FC 3.70. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Almere City FC 90% BTTS from recent games.

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