Willem II 2-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Willem II at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Almere City FC encounter.

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Analysis

Almere City FC make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eerste Divisie (Semi-finals). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Willem II have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Willem II's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Almere City FC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Almere City FC away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Willem II. A 0.90 PPG lead over Almere City FC (2.50 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Willem II edge it 4 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2026, ended Willem II 1–0 Almere City FC — a Willem II win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Willem II — key trading statistics (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 57% versus Almere City FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Almere City FC 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.70 xG and Almere City FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.839 / defence 0.741 | Almere City FC attack 1.142 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Willem II's projected output up. Willem II have a tight defence (rating 0.741), which is pulling Almere City FC's projected output down. Data: built from Willem II's last 38 games and Almere City FC's last 38.

Result probabilities: Willem II 49% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.04 | Draw 4.18 | Almere City FC 3.69. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 50% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 90% (last 10 away games).

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