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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Eerste Divisie · Semi-finals

Kick-off

Sat 16 May 2026

19:00

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

49%

Willem II

2.04

24%

Draw

4.18

27%

Almere City FC

3.69

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

1 – 0

9.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.70

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.90

1.20

Almere City FC xG

49%
24%
27%
Willem IIDrawAlmere City FC

2.04

49%

Home win

4.18

24%

Draw

3.69

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

30%

Willem II

3.33

18%

Almere City FC

5.46

Win to Nil

15%

Willem II

6.81

5%

Almere City FC

20.12

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.5 6.6 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1
1 9.3 11.2 6.8 2.7 0.8 0.2
2 7.9 9.5 5.7 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 4.5 5.4 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.9 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2
5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.697
λ Away (xG) 1.203
Total xG 2.900
League avg home goals 1.644
League avg away goals 1.421
Willem II attack strength 0.839
Willem II defence strength 0.741
Almere City FC attack strength 1.142
Almere City FC defence strength 1.231
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 38