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Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Waalwijk 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Waalwijk 0-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Quarter-finals, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Willem II 1.74 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.20 / defence 1.03 against Willem II attack 1.19 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 35% | Draw 23% | Willem II 43%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 68%, Willem II 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Willem II's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.15 PPG, Willem II 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights