Waalwijk 0-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Willem II (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waalwijk face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Willem II hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Willem II winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 69% and Willem II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 68% | Willem II 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Willem II 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.202 / defence 1.027 | Willem II attack 1.194 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Willem II's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Waalwijk games / 38 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 35% | Draw 23% | Willem II 43%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 35% | Draw 23% | Willem II 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Waalwijk 1.55 / Willem II 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.202 / def 1.027 | Willem II attack 1.194 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Willem II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Willem II xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Willem II kick off?
Waalwijk vs Willem II kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Waalwijk 0 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Waalwijk vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Willem II part of?
Waalwijk vs Willem II is a Quarter-finals fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 35% chance of winning, Willem II a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Waalwijk and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Willem II?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 5W.
What form are Waalwijk and Willem II in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Willem II (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.20x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.19x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
35%
2.90
23%
4.36
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.30
1.74
Willem II xG
2.90
35%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
17%
5.71
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
6%
16.54
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.74 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk come into this having played 74 games, going 22W 19D 33L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.27 PPG from 74 outings (26W 16D 32L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.27 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Waalwijk's home form reads 14W 8D 15L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.30 points per game from 37 outings (13W 9D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.31 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Willem II in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 22W 19D 33L in their last 74 games (1.15 PPG), while Willem II have gone 26W 16D 32L in their last 74 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Willem II away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.35 PPG; Willem II away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
1
Draws
6
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Willem II have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 65%, Willem II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Waalwijk and 54% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Waalwijk's games and 60% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Waalwijk's matches and 54% of Willem II's.
Do Waalwijk and Willem II tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Willem II in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Waalwijk 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Waalwijk 0-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Quarter-finals, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Willem II 1.74 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.20 / defence 1.03 against Willem II attack 1.19 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 35% | Draw 23% | Willem II 43%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 68%, Willem II 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.15 PPG, Willem II 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.