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Poisson model favours Willem II (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waalwijk face Willem II.

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Full Analysis

Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.

Current Form

Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Willem II have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Willem II's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Willem II hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Willem II winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 69% and Willem II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 68% | Willem II 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Willem II 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.202 / defence 1.027 | Willem II attack 1.194 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Willem II's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Waalwijk games / 38 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Waalwijk 35% | Draw 23% | Willem II 43%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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