VVV Venlo 3-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host De Graafschap at Seacon - De Koel in Eerste Divisie (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
VVV Venlo — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
VVV Venlo at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, VVV Venlo have won 5, De Graafschap 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Aug 2025, ended VVV Venlo 2–3 De Graafschap — a De Graafschap win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VVV Venlo in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 49% versus De Graafschap 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 59% | De Graafschap 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.20 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.790 / defence 0.926 | De Graafschap attack 1.172 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.474. VVV Venlo's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from VVV Venlo's last 73 games and De Graafschap's last 73.
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 47%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.49 | Draw 4.05 | De Graafschap 2.14. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VVV Venlo's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VVV Venlo 40% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 36 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG VVV Venlo 1.20 / De Graafschap 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.790 / def 0.926 | De Graafschap attack 1.172 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.60
De Graafschap xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap kick off?
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Seacon - De Koel.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
VVV Venlo 3 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap part of?
VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 36) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 29% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both VVV Venlo and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.79) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VVV Venlo's last 73 games and De Graafschap's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
29%
3.49
25%
4.05
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.80
1.60
De Graafschap xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
6%
17.29
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.60 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo come into this having played 73 games, going 23W 13D 37L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.67 PPG from 73 outings (35W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
VVV Venlo's home form reads 12W 6D 18L across their last 36 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 36 away games (13W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.86 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
VVV Venlo (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VVV Venlo
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 23W 13D 37L in their last 73 games (1.12 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 35W 17D 21L in their last 73 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.17 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won De Graafschap 3-0 VVV Venlo.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VVV Venlo have won 6, De Graafschap have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and De Graafschap?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 44%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (VVV Venlo) and 61% (De Graafschap).
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 39% of games; De Graafschap in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VVV Venlo vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VVV Venlo and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of VVV Venlo's games and 67% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VVV Venlo and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 61% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 78% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo and De Graafschap finished level at 3-3 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.20 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.79 / defence 0.93 against De Graafschap attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 29% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 47%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 59%, De Graafschap 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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