Vitesse 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host Waalwijk at GelreDome in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Vitesse haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 4W 4D 2L at GelreDome — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Vitesse have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Vitesse have won 2, Waalwijk 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Vitesse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 63% and Waalwijk 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 68% | Waalwijk 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.82 xG and Waalwijk 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 1.038 / defence 1.008 | Waalwijk attack 1.100 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. Data: 38 Vitesse games / 38 Waalwijk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 44% | Draw 22% | Waalwijk 34%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Waalwijk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Waalwijk lead the H2H ledger, but Vitesse carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 80% | Waalwijk 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 44% | Draw 22% | Waalwijk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Vitesse 1.82 / Waalwijk 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 1.038 / def 1.008 | Waalwijk attack 1.100 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Waalwijk xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Waalwijk kick off?
Vitesse vs Waalwijk kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 7 August 2026 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Vitesse 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Vitesse vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Waalwijk part of?
Vitesse vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 44% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Vitesse and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
Record (8 meetings): Vitesse 2W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 4W.
What form are Vitesse and Waalwijk in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Vitesse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (1.04) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
44%
2.28
22%
4.45
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.40
1.57
Waalwijk xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
5%
18.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.57 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 15W 11D 12L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. Vitesse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Waalwijk's form line: 14W 12D 12L from 38 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. Waalwijk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.47 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 6W 8D 5L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.79 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 79%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Pre-Season
Waalwijk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 15W 11D 12L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Waalwijk away?
Vitesse's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.42 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Waalwijk runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitesse's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Vitesse
3
Draws
4
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
From 9 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Waalwijk have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Vitesse 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 74%, Waalwijk at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Vitesse and 68% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Vitesse's games and 79% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Vitesse's matches and 68% of Waalwijk's.
Do Vitesse and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 1, as Vitesse and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.82 xG and Waalwijk 1.57 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Waalwijk attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 44% | Draw 22% | Waalwijk 34%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 68%, Waalwijk 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.47 PPG, Waalwijk 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.