Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 8 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Den Bosch haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almere City FC haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Den Bosch, 1.30 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Almere City FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Den Bosch 3W, Almere City FC 4W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 75% and Almere City FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 70% | Almere City FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.71 xG and Almere City FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.972 / defence 0.990 | Almere City FC attack 1.079 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.470. Data: 38 Den Bosch games / 38 Almere City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 41% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 80% | Almere City FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 41% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Den Bosch 1.71 / Almere City FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.972 / def 0.990 | Almere City FC attack 1.079 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Almere City FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kick off?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC part of?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 41% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Den Bosch and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Record (8 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.97x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.08x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
41%
2.42
23%
4.34
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.28
1.57
Almere City FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
6%
15.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.57 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 14W 9D 17L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. Den Bosch haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Almere City FC's form line: 20W 5D 15L from 40 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. Almere City FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.62 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 8W 2D 10L from 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.08 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Pre-Season
Almere City FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 20W 5D 15L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Almere City FC away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.50 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Den Bosch, 80% for Almere City FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Den Bosch and 75% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Den Bosch's games and 80% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Den Bosch's matches and 75% of Almere City FC's.
Do Den Bosch and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Vliert, Regular Season - 1, as Den Bosch and Almere City FC drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.71 xG and Almere City FC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Almere City FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 41% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 36%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 70%, Almere City FC 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.27 PPG, Almere City FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.