NAC Breda vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as NAC Breda welcome Roda to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.70 PPG, Roda 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for NAC Breda, 2 for Roda and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Roda trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 53% versus Roda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 56% | Roda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.21 xG and Roda 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.913 / defence 1.205 | Roda attack 0.629 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Roda's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 NAC Breda games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 38% | Draw 28% | Roda 33%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 40% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 38% | Draw 28% | Roda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG NAC Breda 1.21 / Roda 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.913 / def 1.205 | Roda attack 0.629 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Roda xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Roda kick off?
NAC Breda vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 18 December 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Roda part of?
NAC Breda vs Roda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 38% chance of winning, Roda a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NAC Breda and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): NAC Breda 4W | Draws 3 | Roda 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.91x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.32
1.11
Roda xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.11 for Roda, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 12W 13D 20L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 16W 17D 12L from 45 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.09 PPG, Roda on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
On the road, Roda have gone 9W 9D 4L from 22 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Roda have gone 16W 17D 12L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.32 PPG; Roda away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
3
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
From 9 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Roda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Roda 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Roda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Roda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 54% (Roda).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 32% of games; Roda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 64% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of NAC Breda's recent games and 54% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Roda tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Roda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.