FC Volendam vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 18 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Emmen (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Volendam, 3 for Emmen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2026, ended 3–5 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Emmen — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 60% versus Emmen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 60% | Emmen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.76 xG and Emmen 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.369 / defence 0.825 | Emmen attack 1.101 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — their λ of 2.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 FC Volendam games / 49 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 68% | Draw 16% | Emmen 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.47 | Draw 6.25 | Emmen 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (68%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.76 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 68% | Draw 16% | Emmen 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 68% | xG FC Volendam 2.76 / Emmen 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.369 / def 0.825 | Emmen attack 1.101 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Emmen xG
68%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Emmen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 18 December 2026 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Emmen part of?
FC Volendam vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 68% chance of winning, Emmen a 16% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Volendam and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
Record (7 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 2 | Emmen 3W.
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Emmen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.37x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.10x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 10/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
68%
1.47
16%
6.14
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.06
1.30
Emmen xG
1.47
68%
Home win
6.14
16%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
6%
15.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
1%
99.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.30 for Emmen, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 9D 24L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 19W 10D 18L from 47 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.43 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Emmen have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Emmen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.70 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while Emmen have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Emmen away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.65 PPG; Emmen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
3
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Emmen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Emmen 5-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 70%, Emmen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 65% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 56% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 65% of Emmen's.
Do FC Volendam and Emmen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Emmen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.