FC Volendam vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 18 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Volendam, 2 for Emmen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Emmen — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 60% versus Emmen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 62% | Emmen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 3.57 xG and Emmen 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / defence 0.900 | Emmen attack 1.100 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.454 — their λ of 3.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 FC Volendam games / 42 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 73% | Draw 13% | Emmen 14%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.37 | Draw 7.69 | Emmen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (73%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 90% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 5.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 90% — a total xG of 5.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (3.57 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 5.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 90% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 73% | Draw 13% | Emmen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 90% | BTTS 79% | xG FC Volendam 3.57 / Emmen 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.454 / def 0.900 | Emmen attack 1.100 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.57
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Emmen xG
79%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
77%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Emmen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 18 December 2026 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Emmen part of?
FC Volendam vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 73% chance of winning, Emmen a 14% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both FC Volendam and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 90%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
Record (6 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 2 | Emmen 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.45x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 3.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.10x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 6.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-1 (6.0%), 3-2 (5.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
73%
1.37
13%
7.67
14%
7.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 1
6.0%
Home win
2 – 1
5.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.57
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
5.26
1.68
Emmen xG
1.37
73%
Home win
7.67
13%
Draw
7.06
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
97%
Over 1.5
1.03
3%
Under 1.5
33.33
90%
Over 2.5
1.11
10%
Under 2.5
10.00
77%
Over 3.5
1.30
23%
Under 3.5
4.35
60%
Over 4.5
1.67
40%
Under 4.5
2.50
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.79
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
3%
35.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.7%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 3.57 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.68 for Emmen, a combined total of 5.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 8D 21L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen's form line: 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.35 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Emmen have gone 5W 4D 11L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Emmen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.65 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Emmen have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Emmen away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.45 PPG; Emmen away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Emmen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Emmen 1-2 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for FC Volendam, 55% for Emmen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 65% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Volendam's games and 55% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 65% of Emmen's.
Do FC Volendam and Emmen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Emmen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.