De Graafschap vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Heracles travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 December 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Heracles — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Heracles's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of De Graafschap's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for De Graafschap, 2 for Heracles and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2026, ended 0–5 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and Heracles 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 73% | Heracles 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.64 xG and Heracles 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.890 / defence 1.150 | Heracles attack 1.363 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 10 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 28% | Draw 20% | Heracles 52%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.57 | Draw 5.00 | Heracles 1.92. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.89 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 6.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 18 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 28% | Draw 20% | Heracles 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 72% | xG De Graafschap 1.64 / Heracles 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.890 / def 1.150 | Heracles attack 1.363 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Heracles (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Heracles xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Heracles kick off?
De Graafschap vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 18 December 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Heracles part of?
De Graafschap vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 28% chance of winning, Heracles a 52% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both De Graafschap and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Heracles?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Heracles 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Heracles in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Heracles (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.89x the league average against Heracles's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
28%
3.54
20%
4.96
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.89
2.25
Heracles xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
11%
9.46
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
3%
33.48
10%
10.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.25 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 20W 11D 14L from 45 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 26L across 45 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 5W 2D 14L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.58 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Heracles in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 5D 26L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Heracles away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.71 PPG; Heracles away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2026, when Heracles won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Heracles?
From 3 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Heracles 5-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 76%, Heracles at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for De Graafschap and 81% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 62% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of De Graafschap's matches and 81% of Heracles's.
Do De Graafschap and Heracles tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Heracles in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.