Den Bosch 0-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Roda travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Friday 19 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Den Bosch stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Den Bosch, 3 for Roda and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Den Bosch 1–4 Roda — a Roda win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Roda trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 55% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 67% | Roda 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Den Bosch surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Roda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.19 xG and Roda 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.869 / defence 1.323 | Roda attack 0.920 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.433. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.323 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Roda's projected output up. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 59 games and Roda's last 58.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 25% | Draw 26% | Roda 49%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 4.05 | Draw 3.80 | Roda 2.04. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 80% (last 10 home games) | Roda 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 19 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 25% | Draw 26% | Roda 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Den Bosch 1.19 / Roda 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.869 / def 1.323 | Roda attack 0.920 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Roda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Roda xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs Roda FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs Roda kick off?
Den Bosch vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 19 January 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Den Bosch 0 - 0 Roda.
Where is Den Bosch vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Roda part of?
Den Bosch vs Roda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 25% chance of winning, Roda a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Den Bosch and Roda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Den Bosch vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 59 games and Roda's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
25%
4.05
26%
3.80
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.94
1.74
Roda xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
4%
23.19
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs Roda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.74 for Roda, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 14W 9D 35L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Roda's form line: 23W 13D 22L from 58 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.21 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 5D 14L).
On the road, Roda have gone 8W 8D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Roda
Blended
Den Bosch (Home) vs Roda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Den Bosch vs Roda Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and Roda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 9D 35L in their last 58 games (0.88 PPG), while Roda have gone 23W 13D 22L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Roda away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.21 PPG; Roda away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 27 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won Roda 6-0 Den Bosch.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs Roda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Roda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Roda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2026: Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 66%, Roda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Den Bosch) and 45% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs Roda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and Roda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Den Bosch's games and 52% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and Roda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Den Bosch's matches and 45% of Roda's.
Do Den Bosch and Roda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 76% of Roda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Den Bosch's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 22, as Den Bosch and Roda drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.19 xG and Roda 1.74 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Roda landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.87 / defence 1.32 against Roda attack 0.92 / defence 0.84, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 25% | Draw 26% | Roda 49%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 67%, Roda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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